NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:What to know as Tropical Storm Helene takes aim at Florida

ST. PETERSBURG,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center Fla. (AP) — Another storm system is taking aim at Florida, this time possibly the Panhandle with storm effects all along the Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Helene, soon to be a hurricane, is sweeping up from the Caribbean Sea into extremely warm waters that are fuel for tropical cyclones.

Here’s what to know:

Where is the system?

As of Tuesday afternoon, Helene was swirling near Cancun, Mexico, with sustained winds of 45 mph (72 kph) but forecast to grow stronger, possibly to a Category 3 system by Thursday evening, and likely head through the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center. A hurricane warning has been issued for a large swath of the state’s Gulf Coast, from Anclote River, which is in the Tampa Bay area, to Mexico Beach, which took a direct hit when Hurricane Michael slammed into the Florida Panhandle in October 2018.

What is expected?

The Gulf is extremely warm, which is fuel for hurricanes as heat helps the water evaporate faster, producing more rainfall. The overall temperature in the Gulf is about 84 degrees (29 degrees Celsius), somewhat hotter than average, which means the storm will grow in strength.

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The lower a storm’s pressure the stronger the storm. The storm’s barometric pressure as of Tuesday evening was 995 millibars but will likely go lower as the storm intensifies. For comparison, Category 5 Hurricane Ian’s minimum estimated pressure was 937 millibars when it hit Fort Myers, Florida, in September 2022.

The National Hurricane Center projects that Helene will make landfall Thursday evening along the Big Bend or Panhandle area of Florida, not the most populated part of the state. The area was hit by Hurricane Debby, a Category 1 storm, in August and Hurricane Idalia last September.

Depending on the track of the storm, portions of Alabama and Georgia could be hit by tropical storm force, or higher winds, and rain.

Likely impacts

A hurricane brings high winds, sometimes enough to tear roofs off houses. But the bigger threat is flooding that can come up from storm drains in addition to water from the Gulf. More people die from flooding than from wind in a hurricane.

Forecasters say up to 15 feet (3 meters) of storm surge is possible along parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast, with lesser amounts further down the coast.

Government steps

President Joe Biden has been briefed on Tropical Storm Helene, and his administration is in touch with officials from states in the storm’s path, the White House said Tuesday.

“Federal resources and personnel are prepositioned, including generators, food, and water, along with search and rescue and power restoration teams,” White House spokesperson Jeremy Edwards said in a statement. “At the direction of the President, FEMA has also deployed teams to Florida and Alabama to embed with local emergency response personnel to support their efforts, as needed.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency Monday afternoon for 61 of Florida’s 67 counties, excluding the state’s most populated region in South Florida.