Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|Fantasy football: Ranking 5 best value plays in 2024 drafts

Trying to avoid risk in fantasy football drafts is Surpassing Quant Think Tank Centerlike entering a soup-eating contest with a fork. You won’t win.

Fantasy “league-winners” are usually those players who return the most value relative to their Average Draft Position (ADP). Last season, Raheem Mostert was the 40th running back off the board. More than 115 players were being drafted ahead of him on average. He ended the season as the RB2 and the second-most-rostered player on Yahoo championship teams.

The word “sleeper” can mean different things to different people. In this article, it’s defined as players whose value should be markedly higher than their current drafting price.

Here are my top five fantasy football sleepers for 2024.

Top 2024 fantasy football sleepers

DK Metcalf, Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 38.7 (WR21)

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Over the last four seasons, DK Metcalf has posted these rankings: WR7, WR12, WR18, WR16. Yet, despite a seemingly improved outlook, he has an ADP of WR21.

Targets should not be hard to come by for the 26-year-old in 2024.

Under the reins of Shane Waldron, the Seattle Seahawks ranked dead last in plays per game last season. They made sloths look like Noah Lyles. Enter Ryan Grubb.

Under Grubb’s watch, the Washington Huskies ranked 20th in the nation in plays per game in his first season as offensive coordinator. That pace would be a breath of fresh air for the Seattle offense.

Metcalf has proven capable of finishing as a WR1. He has yet to finish as low as he’s currently being drafted. I’m willing to bet that doesn’t change in 2024.

Kyler Murray, Quarterback, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: 63.7 (QB8)

Arming your team with an elite quarterback can go a long way toward helping you win your league.

In Yahoo leagues last year, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson were among the 12 most-rostered players on championship teams. All three signal-callers appeared on the ESPN list of most common players on championship rosters.

Unfortunately, you’d have to part with a top-40 pick to land any of those names – ditto for Patrick Mahomes. Fortunately, there’s a former overall QB1 coming off the board in the 60s with an elite combination of high floor and ceiling. His name is Kyler Murray.

In terms of points per game, Kyler has ranked inside the top eight every season since his rookie year, including two top-four finishes. The floor is elite.

His ceiling is downright titillating.

Marvin Harrison Jr. enters the fold, and the last time Kyler had a wideout of his caliber, he dominated. In 28 career full games with DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal, Murray averaged 25 points. For reference, Josh Allen led the league at 24.2 points per game in 2023.

Go get Kyler and reap the benefits.

Diontae Johnson, Wide Receiver, Carolina Panthers

ADP: 89.3 (WR37)

Last season, the Carolina Panthers peppered Adam Thielen’s corpse with 137 targets. Rookie Jonathan Mingo looked like a deer in the headlights, and he still had 85 passes thrown in his general vicinity. DJ Chark, who is no longer with the team, garnered 66 looks.

Long story short, there’s a gaping hole in this offense waiting to be filled by an NFL-caliber wideout, and Diontae Johnson might just be that guy.

Sure, the former Steeler spends more time in the blue tent than some trainers, but productivity is not an issue when he’s healthy. And given his ADP, the risk here is minimal.

If Thielen could finish as a top-25 fantasy receiver last year, Johnson should have no trouble topping that this season.

Brian Thomas Jr., Wide Receiver, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 118.7 (WR49)

Four wideouts were drafted inside the top 25 of the 2024 NFL draft. Marvin Harrison Jr. has an ADP inside the top 20. Malik Nabers finds himself in the top 50. Rome Odunze is being drafted as a top-100 player despite having two alpha receivers on the depth chart ahead of him. The fourth is Brian Thomas Jr.

While not the same caliber prospect as the first three, Thomas landed in a mouthwatering spot.

The Jaguars rank fifth among all teams in vacated targets and second in vacated air yards. That means a huge chunk of the pie is now up for grabs. Gabe Davis will absorb some of that, but Thomas should be in line for a hefty role as a rookie.

Josh Palmer, Wide Receiver, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP: 156.3 (WR55)

He might not be the sexiest pick, but Josh Palmer’s ADP makes no sense.

Justin Herbert is a borderline elite quarterback who needs to throw to someone. The Chargers have, by far, the most vacated targets in the league. Quentin Johnson couldn’t catch a cold at a preschool in the winter. Rookie Ladd McConkey is intriguing, but he never caught more than 58 passes in a season at Georgia. DJ Chark had virtually no competition with the Panthers last year and he surpassed 60 receiving yards just twice.

Palmer was a top-80 pick in 2021, is just 24 years old, and has been quite productive when given a significant role.

In 16 career games where he’s played more than 75% of snaps, the former Tennessee product has posted a line of 85 receptions, 1,076 yards, and five scores. Extrapolated to 17 games, that comes out to 191.4 half-PPR points, which would've been good for a WR18 finish in 2023.