TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center-How did Washington reach national title game? It starts with ice-cold coach Kalen DeBoer

HOUSTON – Troy Dannen had been on TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Centerthe job as Washington’s athletics director for a mere handful of days when the Huskies notched a 36-33 win over Oregon that launched them into national championship contention on Oct. 14.

As the game ended and the tension of the moment transformed into a locker room celebration, Dannen observed that his coach, Kalen DeBoer, had barely changed the serious but serene facial expression he maintained on the sideline. If DeBoer’s blood pressure was spiking or adrenaline rushing after arguably the biggest win of his career, Dannen couldn’t tell. 

"No emotion out of him, no nothing," Dannen said. "I didn’t know the guy." 

Dannen, a veteran administrator who had been around a lot of coaches after big wins, was intrigued by the reaction – or lack thereof. After the party spilled out of the locker room and into the hallway, he pulled DeBoer aside to ask a question.

"Are you OK?"

What Dannen would come to find out, and what the nation would subsequently learn as Washington pulled out one close game after another, is that DeBoer is more than OK. In fact, the 49-year-old South Dakotan who was coaching NAIA ball until 2010 and had never worked at a power conference program until Indiana hired him as offensive coordinator in 2019 might be as icy under pressure as anyone in the entire sport. 

Just look at the evidence. 

On Sept. 30, with the Huskies clinging to a seven-point lead at Arizona, DeBoer went for a fourth-and-1 with 10 seconds left – and got it to end the game rather than kick the ball away.

On Nov. 18 against Oregon State, needing one more first down conversion to ice the game with just under 2 minutes left, DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb didn’t just try to get a first down. With ESPN commentator Kirk Herbstreit on the broadcast calling for a zone-read type of play, Washington instead emptied the backfield, stacked four receivers to the right side of the field and let quarterback Michael Penix find Rome Odunze 20 yards downfield with a back-shoulder throw on a windy, rainy night.

And then in the Apple Cup to end the regular season, DeBoer made a call so risky with 1:15 remaining that it’s hard to imagine any other coach in the country replicating it. In a tied game and facing fourth-and-1 from his own 29-yard line, Washington went with a fake handoff misdirection play that sprung Odunze on the reverse for a huge gain.

The Huskies went on to win 24-21 with a walk-off field goal. Had that fourth-down play not worked, there’s a good chance they wouldn’t have been in the College Football Playoff. 

"I think he likes to roll the dice," ESPN analyst and former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy said. "I think he likes empowering his players to make those plays and they’ve responded pretty remarkably all season long. He understands, 'Man, we’re gonna go out swinging and if we go down, we’re gonna go down on our own accord.'"

Beyond the massive amount of offensive talent and experience that Washington brings to the table, it’s DeBoer’s unrelenting aggressiveness – combined with his almost expressionless surety – that has made the Huskies such a revelation this season. 

And it’s not just about the fourth down calls. It’s allowing Penix to throw the ball when the conventional approach would be to run. It’s going deep when there’s a short route open for an easy six or seven yards. It’s not worrying about the clock – like late in the Sugar Bowl when Washington could have taken the easier way home with more conservative play calls but instead handed Texas one last chance to win it with enough time on the clock to put a drive together. 

That one, of course, nearly blew up in Washington’s face. Texas ended up getting multiple good looks at the end zone, and DeBoer’s game management would have been largely to blame had the Huskies lost. But they didn’t, and perhaps the reason is because the Huskies don’t dial down the aggression or change the way they make decisions based on the stakes of the game – which have gotten bigger every week. 

"You can’t," said Grubb, who hooked up with DeBoer at NAIA program Sioux Falls in 2007 and hasn’t looked back since. “As soon as you do that, you become predictable. 

"I just don’t think you should coach guys not to lose. To me, being offensive is just that. We should be the ones on the attack."

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DeBoer would argue that he’s not reckless or even the most aggressive coach in the country, but he does understand analytics and numbers and has a keen sense of his personnel. In other words, some of these key decisions might be different if it wasn’t Penix at quarterback or if he didn’t have a receiver like Odunze, who is going to come out on the winning end of most 50-50 plays. 

He's also – at least this year – shown some pretty good gut instincts.

"I think a lot of it has to do with the trust of your players," DeBoer said. "We have a very mature crew, both offensively and defensively, that can handle it and be in those moments and be able not to be overwhelmed by the situation. Just go out and execute."

Still, there have been a couple moments this year when Odunze has been a bit surprised by just how much risk DeBoer was willing to take – especially at the end of the Oregon State and Washington State games.

"I was like, 'OK, they’re really doing it,'" Odunze said. "I definitely recognize some of those calls are risky, and I love the mindset that they're in attack mode and willing to take that risk and go get it."

Dannen theorized that DeBoer’s risk tolerance comes from years of playing for championships at the lower levels and getting that experience outside the spotlight. You could also look at it from the opposite direction: Someone of DeBoer’s coaching pedigree is not supposed to be here in the College Football Playoff, so everything that happens now is gravy. That, too, can be a freeing mindset. 

Either way, it is a characteristic that has been valuable for this team that has won eight one-score games this season. Don’t bet on it changing Monday night.

"You can’t do something different than you’ve done all season," Dannen said. "But every time it happens, my heart rate goes up."

For DeBoer, evidence of a pulse is going to be much harder to find.