NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Republican Scott Baugh concedes to Democrat Dave Min in critical California House race

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LOS ANGELES (AP) — Republican Scott Baugh has conceded in his race against Democrat Dave Min in a Southern California U.S. House district, ending his bid to seize the seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter.

The Associated Press has not yet declared a winner because thousands of ballots have not yet been counted.

In a post on the social media platform X Tuesday night, Baugh said “despite running a strong campaign … that effort is going to come up a little short.”

The 47th District in Orange County, southeast of Los Angeles, was a top target for national Republicans looking to protect and possibly expand the party’s narrow majority in the chamber.

On Tuesday, Republican Rep. David Valadao’s victory in California’s 22nd District moved Republicans within two wins of retaining the House gavel, with the tally 216-207 in favor of the GOP, as counting continued in a sliver of races across the country.

Several races remained in play in California that could determine which party controls the House next year.

Min, also posting on X, said that in Congress he will “fight to protect our democracy, safeguard our freedoms and expand economic opportunity.”

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California is known as a liberal protectorate — Democrats hold every statewide office, dominate the Legislature and congressional delegation and outnumber registered Republicans by a staggering 2-1 ratio. Still, Republicans retain pockets of political clout in the Southern California suburbs and vast rural stretches, including the Central Valley.

Orange County was once considered conservative holy ground, where white, suburban homeowners delivered winning margins for Republicans year after year. It was a foundational block in the Reagan revolution. But the county has become more demographically diverse and Democratic over time, like much of the state.

The 47th District, which includes Huntington Beach and other famous surf breaks, has been occupied by Porter, a progressive favorite who in 2022 narrowly defeated Baugh, a former Republican legislator. Porter, known for grilling CEOs during Capitol Hill hearings, stepped aside to run for U.S. Senate, but lost in the primary.

Given the stakes in the closely divided district, the contest was especially rancorous. Min ads called Baugh a “MAGA extremist” who would endanger abortion rights. Baugh said Min’s “extreme liberal views” were out of step with the district.